Starting on Fantasy Leagues
My betting is generally considered a little strange because I’m rarely on multiples and tend to be a bigger fan of value singles. But for some reason (and I’m 90% sure it’s not because I watched The League on Netflix) I really like betting on fantasy league.
I don’t really plan to tip for this sort of thing because I’m just getting the hang of it myself and there’s people out there more qualified than I. To be honest I’m watching a lot of fantasy league tipsters at the moment to try and get an understanding of what they’re talking about and they’re reasoning behind it. It’s quite a jump from the normal sports betting I’m used to.
It’s similar to sports betting. You have values assigned by a third party and you take all available information into account to try and decide if you’re getting a good value. But rather than just betting on high odds with a decent chance you’ve got to min max their expected performance and make the most out of your salary allowance.
I’ll admit I’m not very good at it. I have no real edge at the moment. I find myself guessing more often than not and trying to convince myself that it’s variance kicking my ass when really it’s a lack of knowledge.
It doesn’t really help that the biggest markets are not in the UK but over in the states. Their sites are bigger and seem to basically be the main online gambling outlet since they legally consider it a “skill game” and not gambling.
But that does mean two things. First of all it can mean a softer market for some things over there because if they want to gamble online that’s their outlet to do so.
Secondly it means over here there’s less competition while some sites still guarantee the prize pool. It can basically be a 50/50 poker tournament where you only need to survive half the field to get your result – and that half the field are betting on gut feelings or personal preference rather than results.
The Mayweather Fight Strategy
I cashed in a tournament yesterday without backing a single winning player. Every single one of my matches lost yet I was pretty highly above the 50% mark. How did I manage it?
Pretty damn simple. Points are all that matter.
I’m not looking to cheer as my player wins by a narrow margin. Winning is usually only a few points for the team slot. I’m looking for a much bigger pool of points earned a long the way.
I don’t want the players going for the long shot game winning strategy. I want the grinders who will stall out their games and get a lot done. Every one of my players lost their match up but accrued so many points that I was cheering in a victory after only a few matches in.
Honestly I think this is the biggest edge you can have right now to remove emotion and the idea that winning requires winning.